Part Seven Chapter 2

‘No problem,' he muttered. He was glad. He could not imagine what they had left to talk about. This way he could sit with Gaia. A little way down Church Row, Samantha Mollison was standing at her sitting-room window, holding a coffee and watching mourners pass her house on their way to St Michael and All Saints. When she saw Tessa Wall, and what she thought was Fats, she let out a little gasp. ‘Oh my God, he's going,' she said out loud, to nobody. Then she recognized Andrew, turned red, and backed hastily away from the glass. Samantha was supposed to be working from home. Her laptop lay open behind her on the sofa, but that morning she had put on an old black dress, half wondering whether she would attend Krystal and Robbie Weedon's funeral. She supposed that she had only a few more minutes in which to make up her mind. She had never spoken a kind word about Krystal Weedon, so surely it would be hypocritical to attend her funeral, purely because she had wept over the account of her death in the Yarvil and District Gazette, and because Krystal's chubby face grinned out of every one of the class photographs that Lexie had brought home from St Thomas's? Samantha set down her coffee, hurried to the telephone and rang Miles at work. ‘Hello, babe,' he said. (She had held him while he sobbed with relief beside the hospital bed, where Howard lay connected to machines, but alive.) ‘Hi,' she said. ‘How are you?' ‘Not bad. Busy morning. Lovely to hear from you,' he said. ‘Are you all right?' (They had made love the previous night, and she had not pretended that he was anybody else.) ‘The funeral's about to start,' said Samantha. ‘People going by †¦' She had suppressed what she wanted to say for nearly three weeks, because of Howard, and the hospital, and not wanting to remind Miles of their awful row, but she could not hold it back any longer. ‘†¦ Miles, I saw that boy. Robbie Weedon. I saw him, Miles.' She was panicky, pleading. ‘He was in the St Thomas's playing field when I walked across it that morning.' ‘In the playing field?' In the last three weeks, a desire to be absorbed in something bigger than herself had grown in Samantha. Day by day she had waited for the strange new need to subside (this is how people go religious, she thought, trying to laugh herself out of it) but it had, if anything, intensified. ‘Miles,' she said, ‘you know the council †¦ with your dad – and Parminder Jawanda resigning too – you'll want to co-opt a couple of people, won't you?' She knew all the terminology; she had listened to it for years. ‘I mean, you won't want another election, after all this?' ‘Bloody hell, no.' ‘So Colin Wall could fill one seat,' she rushed on, ‘and I was thinking, I've got time – now the business is all online – I could do the other one.' ‘You?' said Miles, astonished. ‘I'd like to get involved,' said Samantha. Krystal Weedon, dead at sixteen, barricaded inside the squalid little house on Foley Road †¦ Samantha had not drunk a glass of wine in two weeks. She thought that she might like to hear the arguments for Bellchapel Addiction Clinic. The telephone was ringing in number ten Hope Street. Kay and Gaia were already late leaving for Krystal's funeral. When Gaia asked who was speaking, her lovely face hardened: she seemed much older. ‘It's Gavin,' she told her mother. ‘I didn't call him!' whispered Kay, like a nervous schoolgirl as she took the phone. ‘Hi,' said Gavin. ‘How are you?' ‘On my way out to a funeral,' said Kay, with her eyes locked on her daughter's. ‘The Weedon children's. So, not fabulous.' ‘Oh,' said Gavin. ‘Christ, yeah. Sorry. I didn't realize.' He had spotted the familiar surname in a Yarvil and District Gazette headline, and, vaguely interested at last, bought a copy. It had occurred to him that he might have walked close by the place where the teenagers and the boy had been, but he had no actual memory of seeing Robbie Weedon. Gavin had had an odd couple of weeks. He was missing Barry badly. He did not understand himself: when he should have been mired in misery that Mary had turned him down, all he wanted was a beer with the man whose wife he had hoped to take as his own †¦ (Muttering aloud as he had walked away from her house, he had said to himself, ‘That's what you get for trying to steal your best friend's life,' and failed to notice the slip of the tongue.) ‘Listen,' he said, ‘I was wondering whether you fancied a drink later?' Kay almost laughed. ‘Turn you down, did she?' She handed Gaia the phone to hang up. They hurried out of the house and half jogged to the end of the street and up through the Square. For ten strides, as they passed the Black Canon, Gaia held her mother's hand. They arrived as the hearses appeared at the top of the road, and hurried into the graveyard while the pall-bearers were shuffling out onto the pavement. (‘Get away from the window,' Colin Wall commanded his son. But Fats, who had to live henceforth with the knowledge of his own cowardice, moved forward, trying to prove that he could, at least, take this †¦ The coffins glided past in the big black-windowed cars: the first was bright pink, and the sight robbed him of breath, and the second was tiny and shiny white †¦ Colin placed himself in front of Fats too late to protect him, but he drew the curtains anyway. In the gloomy, familiar sitting room, where Fats had confessed to his parents that he had exposed his father's illness to the world; where he had confessed to as much as he could think of, in the hope that they would conclude him to be mad and ill; where he had tried to heap upon himself so much blame that they would beat him or stab him or do to him all those things that he knew he deserved, Colin put a hand gently on his son's back and steered him away, towards the sunlit kitchen.) Outside St Michael and All Saints, the pall-bearers were readying themselves to take the coffins up the church path. Dane Tully was among them, with his earring and a self-inked tattoo of a spider's web on his neck, in a heavy black overcoat. The Jawandas waited with the Bawdens in the shade of the yew tree. Andrew Price hovered near them, and Tessa Wall stood at some distance, pale and stony-faced. The other mourners formed a separate phalanx around the church doors. Some had a pinched and defiant air; others looked resigned and defeated; a few wore cheap black clothes, but most were in jeans or tracksuits, and one girl was sporting a cut-off T-shirt and a belly-ring that caught the sun when she moved. The coffins moved up the path, gleaming in the bright light. It was Sukhvinder Jawanda who had chosen the bright pink coffin for Krystal, as she was sure she would have wanted. It was Sukhvinder who had done nearly everything; organizing, choosing and persuading. Parminder kept looking sideways at her daughter, and finding excuses to touch her: brushing her hair out of her eyes, smoothing her collar. Just as Robbie had come out of the river purified and regretted by Pagford, so Sukhvinder Jawanda, who had risked her life to try and save the boy, had emerged a heroine. From the article about her in the Yarvil and District Gazette to Maureen Lowe's loud proclamations that she was recommending the girl for a special police award to the speech her headmistress made about her from the lectern in assembly, Sukhvinder knew, for the first time, what it was to eclipse her brother and sister. She had hated every minute of it. At night, she felt again the dead boy's weight in her arms, dragging her towards the deep; she remembered the temptation to let go and save herself, and asked herself how long she would have resisted it. The deep scar on her leg itched and ached, whether moving or stationary. The news of Krystal Weedon's death had had such an alarming effect on her that her parents had arranged a counsellor, but she had not cut herself once since being pulled from the river; her near drowning seemed to have purged her of the need. Then, on her first day back at school, with Fats Wall still absent, and admiring stares following her down the corridors, she had heard the rumour that Terri Weedon had no money to bury her children; that there would be no stone marker, and the cheapest coffins. ‘That's very sad, Jolly,' her mother had said that evening, as the family sat eating dinner together under the wall of family photographs. Her tone was as gentle as the policewoman's had been; there was no snap in Parminder's voice any more when she spoke to her daughter. ‘I want to try and get people to give money,' said Sukhvinder. Parminder and Vikram glanced at each other across the kitchen table. Both were instinctively opposed to the idea of asking people in Pagford to donate to such a cause, but neither of them said so. They were a little afraid, now that they had seen her forearms, of upsetting Sukhvinder, and the shadow of the as-yet-unknown counsellor seemed to be hovering over all their interactions. ‘And,' Sukhvinder went on, with a feverish energy like Parminder's own, ‘I think the funeral service should be here, at St Michael's. Like Mr Fairbrother's. Krys used to go to all the services here when we were at St Thomas's. I bet she was never in another church in her life.' The light of God shines from every soul, thought Parminder, and to Vikram's surprise she said abruptly, ‘Yes, all right. We'll have to see what we can do.' The bulk of the expense had been met by the Jawandas and the Walls, but Kay Bawden, Samantha Mollison and a couple of the mothers of girls on the rowing team had donated money too. Sukhvinder then insisted on going into the Fields in person, to explain to Terri what they had done, and why; all about the rowing team, and why Krystal and Robbie should have a service at St Michael's. Parminder had been exceptionally worried about Sukhvinder going into the Fields, let alone that filthy house, by herself, but Sukhvinder had known that it would be all right. The Weedons and the Tullys knew that she had tried to save Robbie's life. Dane Tully had stopped grunting at her in English, and had stopped his mates from doing it too. Terri agreed to everything that Sukhvinder suggested. She was emaciated, dirty, monosyllabic and entirely passive. Sukhvinder had been frightened of her, with her pockmarked arms and her missing teeth; it was like talking to a corpse. Inside the church, the mourners divided cleanly, with the people from the Fields taking the left-hand pews, and those from Pagford, the right. Shane and Cheryl Tully marched Terri along between them to the front row; Terri, in a coat two sizes too large, seemed scarcely aware of where she was.

How criminals have adapted to technology Essay

Technology has made our world increasingly open and vulnerable (Goodman, 2012). As companies develop amazing technology for good purposes, criminals can use that same technology to hurt people. It is a bad assumption to believe that crime-stopping technology cannot be used against the system. Lawbreakers can develop and use technology for the sole purpose of committing crimes and new technologies produce the risks of unanticipated, undesirable risks and consequences (Cole, Smith, & DeJong, 2014). There are so many different types of new technology that criminals use and that the system uses. Criminals use cyber-crime to break into people’s accounts, and counterfeiting to steal from companies, just to name a couple. Police use computers a lot for their work. New programs, like the Geographic Information System, are useful for mapping problem locations to deal with specific crime. All kinds of information can be collected in law enforcement databases: fingerprints, tattoos, DNA samples, and gun/ballistic records. I think the biggest threat to society from their adaptation is the fact that personal information is so open to the public now. Criminals have grown with the technology and know how to get credit card numbers, addresses, and so much that is very dangerous for them to have and abuse. Reference Cole, G., Smith, C., & DeJong, C. (2014). Criminal justice in america (7th ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. Goodman, M. (2012). How technology makes us vulnerable. CNN Opinion. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/29/opinion/goodman-ted-crime/.

The Sea Wolf

The crew of the seal hunting ship the Ghost stood in disbelief as they gazed upon their recently departed first mate. Then a most unusual thing occurred. The captain began yelling at the dead man like a raging storm. Oaths rolled from his lips in a continuous stream. And they were not nice and thoughtful words or mere expressions of indecency. Each word was a blasphemy, and there were many words. It is this lack of remorse for others that defines Wolf Larsen, the antagonist in The Seal Wolf by Jack London. From the beginning of the book you are introduced to the contrast of characters at hand. The feeble gentleman Humphrey Van Weydon, who is cruelly forced upon the voyage, and the devilish and somewhat divine captain Wolf Larsen. This combination of good and evil sets the stage for an amazing battle of wit and perseverance. But to understand the great battle between these two men, you have to understand the almost invincible nature of Captain Wolf Larsen. Wolf is a five foot ten inch, tan skinned brute. His height is not at all the most striking characteristic of the captain. His amazing muscular build and strength rival that of an enlarged gorilla. In fact, the author repeatedly compares Wolfs immense strength with that of a wild animal. The name London gives him is perfect to describe his nature. It is this godlike ability to kill anyone with his bare hands that keeps the crew in fear of him. There is a scene in the book where the crew attempted mutiny on the lone captain. The men jumped all over his back and from then on Wolf Larsen had seven strong men on top of him. The forecastle was like an angry hive of bees aroused by some intruder. No man less than a giant could have accomplished what Wolf Larsen did next. Step by step, by the might of his arms, the whole pack of men striving to drag him back and down, he drew his body up from the floor until he stood upright. The captain then proceeded to make his way up the ladder thus freeing him from this group of murderous tyrants. The whole crew of the Ghost hated Wolf with a great passion, but no one could do anything because his strength and fighting ability were unmatched. The second aspect of Wolf Larsen that makes him so great is his mind. Larsen was born and bred on the sea. Wolf never saw the inside of a schoolhouse. He taught himself everything he knew by reading the great works of American literature. Poetry and novels are the only thing that can take Wolfs mind off the sea. Through his learning he developed a â€Å"live for yourself only† theory on life. You could use such words as egocentric or arrogant to describe Wolfs trust no one attitude. But its easy to see that he got that complete self-reliance from his childhood. Wolf didnt have any parents that ever took care of him. As soon as he was of a decent age (around 10) he was on the boats as a cabin boy making his living. He taught himself reading and writing. The only thing Wolf could be thankful for is the body he was given, everything else he got on his own. The opposite of his first-mate Mr. Van Weydon, who was brought up with nothing but money, and learned at the finest schools. Wolf Continuously mocks death. More so the death of others around him than his own, but it is clear he does not fear his own demise. He lives his life around the theories of Charles Darwin. He believes that the strongest should survive and he is the strongest therefore nothing should stand in his way. Wolfs thinks of himself as godly, where as the rest of his crew would compare him to no other than Lucifer himself. It becomes evident by the end of the novel that the only that is able to defeat Wolf is himself. London is never clear on what exactly kills Wolf Larsen, but it is deeply implied that a brain tumor slowing eats away at him taking away his senses one by one. â€Å"Good-bye, Lucifer, proud spirit,† Maud whispered. Those were the last words echoed as Wolf Larsens body was cast into the deep blue. The epic final chapter to a life matched in comparison by few. The life of The Sea Wolf.

Smoking and How to Quit Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Smoking and How to Quit - Assignment Example Gathering evidence can be time-consuming and hectic if the researcher is not well guided on how to do it. Different patients require different study designs and methods of gathering evidence. Finding research evidence can be undertaken by using the 7 levels study types for evidence-based research. They include; This study relies heavily on randomized control trial whereby smokers are randomized into different groups and each group receives a different treatment. At the end of the trial, the effects of the different treatments are measured. This helps to compare and decide on which treatment is the best. The evidence types found could be referred to other health professionals especially those pertaining to physical health and their professional opinions could be used in determining the best smoking cessation methods. Mostly the evidence found using systems research and summaries is usually very conclusive and could be used in determining the best nicotine usage cessation techniques. Extensive studies conducted could gather a lot of data concerning how many people have successfully managed to quit in a number of therapy clinics and which methods best worked for them. Some health team members that could be referred to with this evidence include; cardiologists, psychologists, pulmonologists, probation workers, dermatologist, opticians and nephrologists (Funnel, 2008). These health professionals once they access the clinic system and analyze the data that has been collected will be able to give their professional opinion about the best quitting technique. Patients need to consult with their family members so that they can help in deciding which is the best method for smoking cessation, based on the evidence type used in research (Boyle, 2010). Involving the patient’s family members is important because it will help the patient to get moral support from family members.

International Business Law COmparative between Unidroit principles and Essay

International Business Law COmparative between Unidroit principles and Al-Majala - Essay Example Man is weak in nature, where he is dependent on industries, clothing, housing, and food for his survival. In short, he is civilized and cannot live like animals, but rather in need of association and co-operation in order to work with fellow human beings to be able to live well (AL-Majalla 1-17). According to AL-Majalla (1-17), each person has the things which he likes and dislikes, and as a result, laws have been established in order to maintain justice and order which regard to, social relations, marriage and mutual help which is civilization in general. The first distribution Islamic Law in the Al-Majala, there is a sector which deals with domestic relations, second deals with civil obligation and the last deals with punishments. In that regard, this paper aims at comparing Business International Law between Unidroit principles and Islamic Law in the Al-Majala. Islamic business laws principles in the Al-Majala requires that any transactions should be conventional of particular tra nsactions. The effects of contracts should also be given meaning and intention of phrases and words, which means that the subject sale of the contract had a right to redeem and pledge. To add to this, certainty is not proved by doubts, and a basic principle that everything remains as original as possible. For example, things should be left as they were, since time immemorial because there was no injury that existed back then. Additionally, liability freedom is an essential principle, and therefore, if an individual destroys another person’s property, as dispute arise in the name of the amount, the testimonial of the person who caused the destruction is heard, and the responsibility of the proof of any sum lies in the property owner, (AL-Majalla 1-17). AL-Majalla (1-17) also claims that Non-existence is an essential principle that applies to each right that comes up. For instance, partnership case of labor and capital, where a dispute comes up whether there is any profit made or not. Normally, the statement of the individual who has the responsibility of labour supply is heard, and the capital owner must have a proof of profits being made, because the main principle is profit non-existence. However, judgment is given in regard to matter that is approved at that time, unless any other proves are provided. Therefore, if the case is proved at that time, a specific item belongs to a person, then the ownership shall be said to be valid unless proven otherwise, which can invalidate the ownership. The Islamic principle in Al-Majala also requires that if there are any upcoming occurrences, they shall be considered as happenings, which happen at the near present. This means that, if any dispute comes up in regard to the time and causes of the event, then such events are referred to the time which is near to the present, unless proven that it relates to some other period. Words are also literally construed, and no attention is paid to any inferences in facts that are obvious claims. This is because, if the text seems to be clear, then there is no need for interpretation. In fact, in Islamic law, matter which has been contrary proved as analogy, which is legal, are not termed as analogy ways in regard to other matters. This means that legal interpretations do not destroy each other. Difficulties cause facility, and therefore, in case of any hardships there must be considerations. This can well be explained by

Marcus Garvey Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Marcus Garvey - Essay Example Marcus Garvey a Jamaican saw the predicament of his people and joined Jamaican Nationalist Organization (Haugen 3). He valued the rights of his people and sought for an approach that would liberate his people from the tyranny of racial discrimination. Garvey toured many nations i.e. London, Central America, Jamaica, and United States of America among others. He was motivated by the predicaments of his people to form a civil right movement that intended to deliver the blacks from psychological bondage of racism. This paper analyses choices, motivation, and strategy of non-violent campaign and the leadership style of Marcus Garvey. Garvey’s approach to racial discrimination and colonialism in Africa and the rest of the world relied on his love for the black race. History quotes that he believed that Africans were able to compete with the whites for the top jobs (Haugen 8). The most pressing need that inspired Garvey to rally against the independence of Africans was taking contro l of their own destiny. He believed that Africans would improve their lives when they took control of their own destiny by instituting their own leaders. Garvey used UNIA as a tool that would bring the blacks together under one umbrella to address their social, economic, and freedom issues. For instance, the UNIA Conference held on 1 August 1920 intended to equip the African leaders with the conscious they required in order to fight for their independence (Haugen 6). The deliberation in the conference as expressed through the opening speech of Garvey shows that Garvey sought to change the conditions of life of Africans through a united movement. Garvey’s uses his own life a model that would shape the lives of the blacks. It is evident from his speech that his personal life motivated him to leadership position. His wish was to mould similar mind, which emulate his ideologies throughout the world. â€Å"I came from an environment that is not better than you†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Hill & Garvey 45). The above is one of the quotes that he made during a gathering where he was addressing blacks. The nature of life in Jamaica and psychological inferiority of the blacks in the United States played a motivational role in influencing the writing, political and social life of Garvey. History documents that Garvey made unique choices in his political movement and social life. For instance, his letter to Theodore Roosevelt portrays an inclusive leadership approach that aim at promoting peace as well as quest for primary rights such democracy in the society. Garvey believed in freedom movements, which advocates for basic human rights through peaceful negotiation. He fought for black pride, which he believed, would come from education and self-realization. Another unique choice that he made during his leadership is to influence the opening of UNIA offices across the world where the blacks existed (Lawler & Davenport 85). This choice posed a great threat to his personal life as well as the governments that oppressed the blacks. The choice to meet the leaders of Ku Klux Kean is unique in the sense that the organization was against liberation of the black. Critical analysis into the leadership style of Garvey takes us to the transformational leadership style. In transformation leadership, four factors form the basis of transformational leadership. These factors are inspiration leadership, charismatic leadership, individualized consideration, and intellectual stimulation. Garvey intention was to rally intellectualism in creating leadership for Africa and the Negroes. He addressed large audience and insisted on the need for education as the foundation for freedom for the blacks (Haugen 4). Another observation is the charisma in his approach to political issues of

POEMS Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

POEMS - Essay Example The poem illustrates the theme of productivity among the American citizens in the totality of its stanzas. In at least each line of the poem, it (the poem) mentions and describes individuals engaged in an activity geared towards productivity. The productivity here is economic and it encompasses all Americans as illustrated in the first line of the first stanza as: â€Å"I hear America singing, the varied carols I hear† (Wallenfeldt, 2012, 26). This first line indicates that the carols in the poem are not from one source, but many sources with a common goal: productivity. The poem â€Å"I hear America Singing† has deployed a huge use of repetition to add more weight and emphasis on the theme. The clause â€Å"makes ready for work, or leaves off work,† in the 4th line brings out the repeated word â€Å"work†. The word â€Å"work† in this line informs that productivity here is achieved only through physical involvement in jobs (Wallenfeldt, 2012, 26). Moreover, the â€Å"singing† has been repeated to put emphasis on how Americans enjoy any practice of productivity they are involved in. Exploration of the reader’s emotions is the most critical part of a poem and what better way to do it by employment of imagery? In the poem â€Å"I hear America Singing† imagery has been employed to reach the needed emotional attachment between the reader and the poem. The line â€Å"The shoemaker singing as he sits on his bench, the hatter singing as he stands,† brings an image to the reader’s mind making them understand the flow and the meaning of the poem (Oliver, 2006, 97). â€Å"I hear America Singing† is a poem showcases great flow of ideas coupled with a fine language use which describes its rhythmic details. Each line in the poem conveys similar information, but only with great emphasis for instance â€Å"The delicious singing of the mother, or of the young wife at work†, each line has an ideological connection with the previous

Why dont Milwaukee School of Engineering offer bus passes for students Assignment - 1

Why dont Milwaukee School of Engineering offer bus passes for students - Assignment Example The situation of travel in the campus is wanting especially for students. There are many benefits of the bus passes but the two that stand out are; cost effectiveness and convenience for the staff and the students. It is also worthwhile noting that to promote the bus pass culture; MSOE can adopt the U-Pass culture and also include the cost for bus pass in tuition to avoid instant payment of bus pass fee which might be seen costly in the short term. On the extreme end they can offer free bus pass as an incentive for students. However the challenges faced include security issues at pick-up points, non 24 hour operation and the costs incurred by the campus. It is thus noticed that bus pass culture is a better culture by weighing the pros and cons and thus it is recommended that the adoption of the U-Pass or any other discounted or free bus pass is necessary for learning in MSOE This is a report on the casual analysis of the transportation situation in Milwaukee School of Engineering with specific regard to the use of bus passes by students. This university commonly referred to as MSOE is a private university situated in the parts downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin. It is a nonprofit making entity that offers degrees in Engineering, Nursing, Mathematics, Business, Technical communication among others. Over the years the school has had a great insurgent of graduate and undergraduate students. By 2011 the tally of students was estimated at more than 2500 students partaking both graduate and undergraduate courses. Due to the rise in the number of students, transportation to the issue has been a challenging issue and debate about the safest, most convenient and most economical form of travel students should use has been on the rising. Students, citizens and various stakeholders have put interest in the issue and have offered various suggestions on the best travel mo de for students. This university is among the

Issues in management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words - 2

Issues in management - Essay Example The primary role responsibility of organizations and institutions is to serve investors (owners) (A High Performance Work Practices Taxonomy 2013). However, CSR gives organizations additional responsibility beyond serving stockholders to include others such as suppliers, employees, clients, the state, the local community, environmental groups, and special interest groups among many more. Stakeholders are all entities affected by the organizations collectively. Most scholars relate the corporate social responsibility with business ethics as much as they remain different concepts. Broadly, the corporate social responsibility includes legal, economic, discretionary, and ethical responsibilities of institutions. On the other hand, business ethics focus on behaviour of groups and individuals in addition to moral adjustments. Thus, this study concentrates on the role of stakeholders with KLM, the Royal Dutch Airlines in perspective. Responsibility appears when an organization or institution accepts a particular duty and proceeds to endorse the duty with behaviours that correspond to the same. In the case of KLM, social responsibility manifests through legal, corporate, and economic efficient actions to recognize a specific responsibility in the community besides the attempt to satisfy social needs (Allen TX 415) . KLM believes in being a

Stock analysis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Stock analysis - Essay Example Samsung gets some space: A federal judge in California rejected a request from Apple Inc. to block Samsung from importing 4 Samsung producs: Infuse 4G, Galaxy S 4G, Droid Change and Galaxy Tab 10.1. Apple had claims that these products violates its patents. The judge rules that the products are not a significant threat to Apple. A trial is scheduled in July to settle the patent liability issue Apple Inc. is a leading organization involved in designing, manufacturing, and marketing of personal computers, mobile communication devices, portable digital music and video players. The company is also involved in related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications worldwide. Its products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, iOS and the Mac OS X, I Cloud and various accessory and support offerings. It’s customers include small and mid-sized business, consumers, enterprises as well as government customers. The company’s sales force include retail stores, online stores, as well as direct sales force. The company also sells its products through partnership with third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers and value-added resellers. It primarily started as a company in the personal computers industry. The industry has been witnessing significant changes in terms of the way services are provided to the customer. Some of the key competitors in the space include Dell, Microsoft and HP. The market for personal computers is characterized by minimal differentiation. Apple is the only manufacturer that uses Mac OS. As a result, the operating system has a significantly less market share. Majority of the market in this space is dominated by Windows, the operating system from Microsoft. The industry has been witnessing downward trend in terms of shipments in US. In the mobile handset industry, the company faces stiff competition from companies like Samsung, HTC, Google, Nokia,

The Chocolate of Tomorrow Essay Example for Free

The Chocolate of Tomorrow Essay R evenues from the chocolate industry continue to prove rewarding, with 2011 figures from IBISWorld predicting annualized growth of around 2% over the next five years, after dampened expectations during the dark days of 2007-09. But behind the encouraging headlines, many companies are battling to stay on top of a rapidly shifting marketplace. Taste is diverging, as fast-growing economies and empowered consumers demand more from their products. For industry stalwarts, the requirement to offer local, highly tailored and increasingly diverse products represents a serious threat to market share. Spotting the markets that are likely to grow quickly will make the difference between the winners and losers of tomorrow’s chocolate landscape. According to official government figures, current hot spots include India (annual growth rate 15%), China (9%), Russia (6%) and Mexico (3. 8%). They all exhibit a number of key factors that help them stand out from the pack, including a youthful population, rapid capital inflows and retail consolidation. In this report, we’ll take a tour of the factors shaping the chocolate market of tomorrow – from geography and demographics, to consumer needs and preferences, and other market drivers. And we’ll attempt to offer a glimpse into the future by defining what might be the chocolate bar of 2030. John A Morris European Head of Consumer Markets KPMG LLP  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The chocolate of tomorrow State of the market Contents 4 The global picture. What they’re eating and why: a world tour of consumer taste in the chocolate market The three types of consumer shaping the way people buy chocolate across the world Four factors that are increasingly de? ning the chocolate market A glimpse of the future – and what it might mean for the industry 6 Shoppers’ preferences 8 Trends to consider Where next for chocolate? The industry has weathered a global recession and is still seeking growth. But with some markets saturated, where does its future lie? The global chocolate industry is many things, but as a bellwether for the wider economy its use is limited. Revenues have remained resilient despite a recessive global picture, falling disposable incomes, volatile commodity prices and increasing competition. Chocolate is often described as recession-proof. Some economists call it the ‘lipstick effect’: when facing an economic crisis, consumers are more willing to buy less costly luxury goods, such as cosmetics and chocolate, even as they cut back on other luxuries. Revenues over the past few years would seem to back this hypothesis, although year-on-year growth remains relatively sluggish and the spectre of volatile input prices continues to cast a shadow over future projections. Although the global market is still dominated by Western Europe and North America, emerging markets clearly represent the future. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) accounted for 55% of global confectionery retail growth in 2011. Other emerging economies with youthful populations and an acquisitive middle class are likely to develop a taste for chocolate and, as their disposable incomes grow, they will represent important target markets. With the traditional markets of Western Europe and North America seemingly saturated, manufacturers are being forced to pull even more innovative tricks out of the bag to attract consumers, from enigmatic ? avor combinations to bolder health claims, portion control and personalized bars. Like a large sharing tablet, the market is breaking up. Taste is diverging as the BRICs and empowered Western consumers demand more from their products. Where will the market take us next? 10 The bar of 2030 12 Contacts Global chocolate retail market value 120 100 US$ billion 80 Source: Euromonitor 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The chocolate of tomorrow The global picture Western Europe is still the largest chocolate market in the world, but slow growth suggests saturation. Health is becoming a major driver in new product launches: in 2011, 10% of products were marketed as vegetarian, 7% as free from additives and 7% as organic. The US eats more chocolate by volume than any country, says the International Cocoa Organization. Consumers are demanding value – and wild ?avors, such as bacon and wasabi. Health matters but is not yet a major driver. The large Hispanic market is key. The British government is pressurizing manufacturers to tackle obesity, although only 12% of consumers see fat content in chocolate as an important factor. Portion control is imperative, with smaller bars and larger ‘sharing packs’ introduced to curb overeating. In Mexico, 52% of the population are under 20: a huge market for candy and chocolate. Around 80-90% of chocolate products are aimed at children. This offers opportunity for tie-ins with well-known children’s brands, but rising obesity levels may prompt regulation. The world of chocolate Geography is still key to understanding the speci? cs of consumer taste. What are customers across the world demanding? 4 Easter is big business in Brazil, with 100 million Easter eggs eaten every year – and this is likely to increase. But childhood obesity presents a curb on growth. With more than 35% of children overweight, child-focused product launches have been driven down by 62%.  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Russia is one of the most promising emerging economies for chocolatiers. The market is worth more than US$8bn and is expected to grow 45% by 2016. As consumers move up the value chain, artisan manufacturers begin to stake their claim. Widespread lactose intolerance has made for a slow start in China, but chocolate sales have risen 40% since 2009. Lindt claims in its annual report that the market is growing 30% a year. Premium products are popular, with over half of all sales bought as gifts. At US$11. 4bn, Japan is the largest Asian market. Domestic artisan companies are ? ourishing but foreigners can ? nd it hard to gain a foothold. Nestle’s Kit-Kat brand is the exception, appealing to consumers with 200 unusual ?avors and special editions. India has always had a sweet tooth, and chocolate is fast becoming its favorite treat, ahead of sugar candy, with an annual market growth rate of 15%. Cadbury’s now owns 70% of the market, introducing innovative products that can survive in the extreme heat. The Middle East/North Africa market is expected to reach US$5. 8bn by 2016, up 61% on today. Almost every part of Africa is growing: South Africa is the biggest market, but sugar confectionery is still 22% more popular there than chocolate, says Leatherhead Food Research. Source: Euromonitor Global market share by region, 2011 Western Europe 32% North America 20% Asia 17% Latin America 13% Eastern Europe 12% Middle East and Africa 4% Australasia 2% 5  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The chocolate of tomorrow Shoppers’ preferences. What consumers want The psychology behind chocolate suggests consumers see it as a ‘naughty but nice’ impulse treat. But a closer look reveals three distinct types of buyer, each with different behaviors and demands THE CONVENIENCE BUYER Chocolate may be seen as an impulse purchase, but it’s becoming increasingly everyday among consumers. Convenience is a major driver for chocolate lovers, who want to grab a bar from a local store or throw a multi-pack into the trolley during a weekly shop. As convenience becomes more important to time-poor shoppers, sales of tablet bars are growing (up 37% in the UK last year) as consumers grab and go. Premium chocolate-makers such as Godiva are rethinking their strategies to get a bite of this lucrative market, introducing smaller bar formats. A desire for convenience is also increasing the popularity of sharing bags, particularly in Western markets, as consumers buy to share or ? nish eating later. Manufacturers have reacted with packaging innovations, such as the ‘memory wrapper’ from Mars that allows bars to be twisted, closed and saved. Mars says the innovation â€Å"empowers the consumer†. It also drives brand loyalty. THE VALUE BUYER In many markets, value is a hot topic. In the US, 79% of consumers look for good value when choosing chocolate, although 70% also want a name brand, according to Mintel Oxygen – meaning even value shoppers are making demands of manufacturers. Value is particularly important in economies where the middle class is still being de? ned – and may exist far below Western levels. According to research from ? nancial services provider Rabobank, a 45g chocolate bar accounted for less than 1% of the weekly shopping budget in the US and UK in 2010, but in India the same bar made up 18% of the weekly food allowance: which means a snack comes at the expense of a full meal. One-size-? ts-all global pricing solutions are dif? cult when the income levels and aspirations of the fast-growing middle class differ so widely. Although disposable income is rising in emerging markets, we could assume that a large proportion of consumers will continue to look for the cheapest option. Value-conscious shoppers favor a new generation of outlets. Discount stores are ? ourishing, which is forcing supermarkets to think more like discounters to attract ? ckle customers, including increasing their private label ranges. Small grocery stores may lack the economies of scale to compete on price, while ‘specialist’ formats are being crowded out. In emerging markets, ‘one-stop’ retail locations are becoming popular due to low prices and greater choice. Where they’re buying 15. 7% 1. 5% 45. 3% 10% 27. 5% Non-store Specialist stores Small grocery stores Supermarkets and discount stores Others 6  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Global chocolate retailers market share 2011. Source: Euromontior THE LUXURY BUYER The luxury chocolate market continues to embrace the mainstream – and not just in developed economies. â€Å"The psychology is that even expensive chocolate is an affordable luxury,† says Marcia Mogelonsky, Global Food Analyst at researcher Mintel. Chocolate is becoming increasingly premiumized, and brands such as Godiva and Lindt have become almost mass market as consumers develop a taste for everyday glamour. Godiva, which has increased its sales from US$400m to almost US$700m in 10 years and is now owned by Turkey’s Yildiz Holdings, plans to become a staple for the health-conscious, sweettoothed consumer. â€Å"Our revenues have increased in all our markets, especially in China and Japan, which are the most important markets right now,† Godiva CEO Jim Goldman has said. â€Å"[Marketing our product] is a balancing act. And it’s different in every country. We do retain our prestige†¦ but we have to be relevant. † In Russia, the chocolate market is expected to grow 45% over the next ? ve years, to reach US$11. 6bn, says Euromonitor. Belgian artisan chocolatier Jean-Philippe Darcis has his eye on the country, predicting: â€Å"The market will evolve and people will have more buying power. † Lindt is enjoying double-digit sales growth in the Middle East. In China, rich dark chocolate is thriving, with Ferrero Rocher and artisan chocolate maker Senz launching exclusive premium dark brands in the last two years. Unsurprisingly, larger manufacturers are keen to get a bite of this burgeoning sector but, without the personal story required to sell such products, they can struggle. The solution: purchase artisan brands and market them as separate entities – large producers’ economies of scale mean this phenomenon makes life hard for surviving artisan brands. Mars has Ethel M, Nestle bought Maison Cailler and Hershey owns Dagoba and Scharffen Berger. â€Å"It may sound counterintuitive, but what’s happening in the [global ? nancial] crisis is a quest by consumers for value, for more affordable products, but also for products that overtake their expectations,† says Laurent Freixe, head of Nestle’s European business. However, large manufacturers with designs on artisan businesses must be careful. â€Å"Consumers like artisan companies because they are high quality and unique,† warns Mary Nanfelt, Food Analyst at IBISWorld. â€Å"That uniqueness and independence must remain. † Luxury sales on the up â€Å"What’s happening in the ? nancial crisis is a quest by consumers for products that are more affordable but that also overtake their expectations† 2001 2005 2008 2011 0 0. 5 1 1. 5 2 2. 5 Godiva Lindt 3 US$bn sales 7  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The chocolate of tomorrow Trends to consider Driving growth From sustainability to eventing, four factors that are increasingly important in understanding the global chocolate market – and the opportunities they could create both now and in the future SUSTAINABILITY Food origin is an increasingly important driver for consumer purchasing decisions in more developed markets, particularly at high-end retailers. Mary Nanfelt, Analyst at IBISWorld, says: â€Å"Americans in particular are becoming more socially conscious in their choices, buying chocolate from sustainable and organic sources. † Globally, use of Fairtrade cocoa has risen dramatically over the last few years, and smart phone users can even download ethical shopping apps. All the major manufacturers have embraced Fairtrade to some degree. Kraft’s Cadbury brand has tripled the amount of Fairtrade cocoa it uses, and Cadbury’s Dairy Milk, the UK’s best-selling bar, is certi? ed Fairtrade. Hershey announced this year that it would begin to source the cocoa for its Bliss brand through Fairtrade farms, while Mars and Nestle already have best-selling Fairtrade lines. INNOVATION As consumers become ever more demanding, innovation is crucial to market share. And personalization is likely to be the next consumer-driven revolution in the industry. Nestle is leading the pack in this area. Maison Cailler allows customers in Switzerland, the world’s largest per capita chocolate market, to create personalized taster packs based on their preferences. Its Spanish brand Diselo con Chocolate recently launched an e-commerce platform where customers can create their own assortments. Gum and candy businesses such as Wrigley’s have already introduced personalized packaging (particularly aimed at gifters) and chocolate could soon follow suit. The next logical step is for consumers to design chocolate bars that cater to their unique palate – but which manufacturer will take on the production challenge involved? HEALTH Although many consumers view chocolate as an occasional treat and don’t obsess over its effect on health, fat is becoming a major issue for manufacturers. So-called ‘fat taxes’ are threatened in a number of major economies, including the US and the UK, while European countries such as Denmark and Hungary have already introduced surplus taxes on unhealthy food. In Japan, the government has gone one step further and is taxing companies and local authorities with a h proportion of overweight igh employees or residents. An increased emphasis on healthy lifestyles is an imperative for governments facing rising healthcare costs, particularly in developed economies that are battling childhood obesity. This has impacted childfocused product launches, which fell 62% last year in the US and Brazil, both countries that are struggling to keep their weight down (more than 35% of Brazilian children under six are overweight or obese). Globally, 21% of parents reported switching products to give their children healthier snacks, potentially reducing brand recognition among the next generation. To combat this, the industry should debate the potential health bene? ts and enable chocolate to be among the next generation of functional foods, pushing the antioxidant effects of dark chocolate or investigating the energyboosting properties of bars with oats, nuts or ‘super fruits’. Latvian brand Laci is using ‘super berry’ sea buckthorn in its products. Smaller bars (Mars has capped its bars at 250 calories in the UK and Australia, and will follow suit in the US in 2013) can encourage awareness of portion sizes. Fairtrade takes off 35,000 30,000 Global production in tonnes 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Source: Fairtrade Foundation 5,000 08 20 03 20 04 20 20 05 06 20 07 20 20 09 10 20 8  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. QA Bert Alfonso CFO, Hershey Personalization is likely to be the next revolution in chocolate†¦ the logical step is for consumers to design bars that cater to their unique palate EVENTING In many countries, chocolate is an essential component of religious events, special occasions and festivals. The seasonal chocolate market is worth US$4. 9bn in the US, an increase of 6. 4% since 2010, says Mintel. Easter is the biggest chocolate event globally and, although the shelves can appear full of competing products, the market is in fact far from saturated. Easter products launched worldwide rose 45% during 2011. Canada has proved particularly fruitful for manufacturers, with seasonal activity increasing 89% in 2011. In gift-hungry Western Europe, growth in seasonal product launches is particularly notable in the UK and France, where seasonal activity increased 53% and 41% respectively. In more mature markets like the US and Australia, there is evidence to suggest consumers are choosing to buy a smaller number of high-margin, luxury items rather than focusing on value products. In Australia, where Easter chocolate spending is expected to grow 3% in 2012 to over US$178m, specialty retailers stocking luxury Easter eggs from the likes of Lindt have been reporting robust growth. China has seen a seasonal boom. The expanding middle class is spending more on premium chocolate, which makes the perfect gift. More than half the chocolate bought in China is purchased as a gift, with Christmas and the Lunar New Year peak buying times. According to Shaun Rein, author of The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that will Disrupt the World, costly confectionery ? lls a gap in traditional present-buying. â€Å"Chocolate hits a good market position. There just aren’t that many other prestige gift items in the $50-$200 range. † Q How has Hershey maintained growth in a time of ? nancial uncertainty? A: We have focused on productivity gains, which have been reinvested in the products consumers are looking for, and increased marketing activity. Gross margins have increased over the last few years as a result of several actions, including raising prices in the US market to offset rising commodity costs. We believe we’re in the middle of a secular bull market for commodities, driven by the growth of emerging economies. What steps have you been taking to mitigate rising raw material costs? Aside from pricing, we use hedging programs in everything but dairy. Certain costs are predictable but when it comes to commodities, we follow the fundamental as well as technical market indicators for materials such as cocoa and sugar. Longer-term, there’s an opportunity to improve cocoa yield in regions such as West Africa. The methods being used at the moment aren’t that sophisticated, which is why we are involved in farming training to enhance cocoa-growing productivity. Overall, cocoa farming is still pro? table at current market prices – and some markets are actually increasing production. How much of your future revenue would you like to see coming from overseas? We have targeted US$1bn revenue from our overseas operations by 2015 – we’ve actually been pacing ahead of that. Mexico, Brazil, India and China are the most important markets for us, and we now manufacture in all of them. We have been manufacturing in China for several years, rather than just exporting there, because US chocolate simply isn’t formulated for the local taste pro? le. How do you see the luxury market developing in future? I believe that smaller artisan companies will ? nd it harder to stay in the market in the long term. Luxury is growing again as a segment and competition is intensifying. It could eventually account for 20% of the market over time. What type of chocolate will we be eating in 2030? A lot of the products currently available in the US market still have longevity. There will be more personalized products as the market seeks to deliver on unique taste pro? les. Also, consumers are looking for more permissive, better-for-you alternatives. The digital aspect of personalization is still at an early stage and we will see further investment from manufacturers. The mass market won’t go away, but it will evolve. 9  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The chocolate of tomorrow The bar of 2030 Looking to the future What kind of chocolate will we be eating in 2030? The rapid change of the past few years gives us some vital clues to the industry’s direction Innovative packaging To stand out on the shelves and reduce costs, packaging could undergo a revolution. Manufacturers will devise new ways to ensure chocolate doesn’t melt in the extreme heat of many emerging markets, as well as introducing new bar sizes. Health bene? ts Chocolate could ride the trend for nutraceuticals. Nestle has already announced plans to invest US$510m in â€Å"pioneering a new industry between food and pharma†. Medicinal herbs could be used as an ingredient, or even aspirin. Additional betterfor-you ingredients such as super-fruits, nuts and oats may become more common. Additive-free chocolate will become the norm in developed economies. Dark chocolate could increase in popularity as consumers become more aware of its health bene? ts. Attracting youth Marketing to the youthful populations of emerging markets (especially India and Latin America) will be vital. Use of popular culture, including bands and TV shows, in marketing campaigns may increase, as will viral marketing and social media interaction, as young people broaden their channels. While children prefer sweeter chocolate, concerned parents will look for chocolate with added health value. 0 03 2 Luxury vs commodity A growing middle class will continue to propel the luxury market, and will increasingly drive it into mainstream retailers. But this will pose a challenge: although middle class consumers in emerging markets may develop expensive tastes, their disposable income will still be relatively limited. Manufacturers may need to choose between margins and volume, positioning themselves carefully as either a luxury or commodity player. The outsourcing solution. The most successful chocolate companies could be purely marketing and RD operations after outsourcing their production to industrial suppliers. The public won’t even have heard of the world’s largest chocolate producers, who will work behind the scenes to supply well-known brands. 10  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. The personal touch Bespoke bars may be commonplace. One artisan chocolate maker says he envisages smaller shops offering people the chance to create their own bar. As consumer palates grow more sophisticated, unusual ? avors will become the norm, with chocolate-lovers choosing their own combinations. Consumers may also be able to design their own packaging. New distribution channels Chocolate will be available from a wider variety of outlets, from coffee shops to health food stores, to cater for convenience buyers. Supermarkets and discount stores will continue to dominate sales, particularly among value customers. Premium chocolate could become available in mainstream stores as luxury buyers proliferate. Brands might seek to move up the value chain by creating their own ? agship stores, something Hershey and Mars (through its MM’s brand) have already done successfully. ar b 0 Fresh ? avors In developed markets, ? avors may become increasingly unusual as palates grow more sophisticated and brands seek a marketing boost. Combinations of sweet and savoury (such as bacon and chocolate) will increase, and salt, olive oil, herbs and ? owers will all be used as ? avorings. Middle class rule Manufacturers are likely to offer more chocolate from ethical sources to meet aspirational buyers’ needs. Middle class consumers will also be keen on premium chocolate for gifting purposes, and seasonal launches, which increased 6% during 2011, will continue to grow. A new recipe Milk chocolate will have a l ower cocoa content due to rising prices, and manufacturers will be forced to use cocoa more sparingly. Demand for cocoa could spiral out of control: one Latin American manufacturer predicts that China and India increasing average per capita consumption by just 1kg could make most manufacturers’ current models unsustainable. In that scenario, arti? cal cocoa could become a viable alternative. Price vs size Think small Rising obesity levels and government regulation will lead to manufacturers limiting portion sizes. Sharing bags of smaller bars will become more popular as people seek to limit the amount eaten in one sitting. Average per capita consumption (currently 8kg in Europe) may drop, although overall consumption is likely to rise as the global middle class mushrooms. In emerging markets, chocolate takes a hefty bite from the household budget. As input price volatility continues, manufacturers may have to keep value in mind or risk losing consumers. Price per gram is rising fast in developed markets, but research shows consumers feel cheated if bars get smaller but price is static. Mainstream manufacturers could be forced to choose between containing cost, at the expense of size, and moving further up the value chain. 11  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. About KPMG KPMG is a global network of professional ? rms providing Audit, Tax and Advisory services. We have 145,000 outstanding professionals working together to deliver value in 152 countries worldwide. KPMG is organized by industry sectors across our member ? rms. The Consumer Markets practice, which encompasses the Food, Drink and Consumer Goods and Retail sectors, comprises an international network of professionals with deep industry experience. This industry-focused network enables KPMG member ?rm professionals to provide consistent services and thought leadership to our clients globally, while maintaining a strong knowledge of local issues and markets. It’s clear the chocolate market is shifting rapidly, and presents a range of challenges and opportunities. To discuss any of the issues raised in this report, please get in touch. Contacts Willy Kruh Global Chair, Consumer Markets and Food, Drink and Consumer Goods +1 416 777 8710 [emailprotected] ca Nick Debnam ASPAC Regional Head of Consumer Markets and Food, Drink and Consumer Goods KPMG in Hong Kong +852 2978 8283 nick. [emailprotected] com Stephane Gard Head of Consumer Markets KPMG in Switzerland +41 21 345 0335 [emailprotected] com John A Morris EMA Region Head of Consumer Markets KPMG in the UK +44 20 7311 8522 john. [emailprotected] co. uk Patrick W Dolan Americas Region and US Head of Consumer Markets KPMG in the US +1 312 665 2311 [emailprotected] com Publication name The Chocolate of Tomorrow Published by Haymarket Network Ltd Publication no 120788 Publication date June 2012 Pre-press by Haymarket Pre-press The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.  © 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (â€Å"KPMG International†), a Swiss entity. Member ? rms of the KPMG network of independent ? rms are af? liated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member ? rm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member ? rm vis-a-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member ? rm. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and â€Å"cutting through complexity† are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Photography and illustration: Creativ Studio Heinemann/Westend61/Corbis; Peter Dazeley/Getty Images; AP/Press Association Images; Shutterstock.

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Deposits in Thermal Power Plant Condensers

Deposits in Thermal Power Plant Condensers Abstract: Unexpected fouling in condensers has always been one of the main operational concerns in thermal power plants. This paper describes an approach to predict fouling deposits in thermal power plant condensers by means of support vector machines (SVMs). The periodic fouling formation process and residual fouling phenomenon are analyzed. To improve the generalization performance of SVMs, an improved differential evolution algorithm is introduced to optimize the SVMs parameters. The prediction model based on optimized SVMs is used in a case study of 300MW thermal power station. The experiment result shows that the proposed approach has more accurate prediction results and better dynamic self-adaptive ability to the condenser operating conditions change than asymptotic model and T-S fuzzy model. Keywords: Fouling prediction; Condensers; Support vector machines; Differential evolution 1. Introduction Condenser is one of key equipments in thermal power plant thermodynamic cycle, and its thermal performance directly impacts the economic and safe operation of the overall plant [1]. Fouling of steam condenser tubes is one of the most important factors affecting their thermal performance, which reduces effectiveness and heat transfer capability with time [2, 3]. It is found that the maximum decrease in effectiveness due to fouling is about 55 and 78% for the evaporative coolers and condensers, respectively [2]. As a consequence, the formation of fouling in condenser of thermal power plants has special economic significance [4-6]. Furthermore, it represents the concerns of modem society in respect of conservation of limited resources, for the environment and the natural world, and for the improvement of industrial working conditions [6, 7]. The fouling of heat exchangers is a wide ranging topic coveting many aspects of technology, the designing and operating of condenser must contemplate and estimate the fouling resistance to the heat transfer. The knowledge of the progression and mechanisms of formation of fouling will allow a design of * Manuscript an appropriate fouling mitigation strategy such as optimal cleaning schedule to be made. The most common used models for fouling estimation are the thermal resistance method and heat transfer coefficient method [6-10]. However, the residual fouling of periodic fouling deposition process and the dynamic changes of heat exchanger operating condition are not considered in these models. Consequently, the estimation error of those methods is very large. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are capable of efficiently dealing with many industrial problems that cannot be handled with the same accuracy by other techniques. To eliminate most of the difficulties of traditional methods, ANNs are used to estimate and control the fouling of heat exchanger in recent years. Prieto et al [11] presented a model that uses non-fully connected feedforward artificial neural networks for the forecasting of a seawater-refrigerated power plant condenser performance. Radhakrishnan et al [12] developed a neural network based fouling model using historical plant operating data. Teruela et al [13] described a systematic approach to predict ash deposits in coal-fired boilers by means of artificial neural networks. To minimize the boiler energy and efficiency losses, Romeo and Gareta illustrated a hybrid system that combines neural networks and fuzzy logic expert systems to control boiler fouling and optimize boiler performance in [14]. Fan and Wang proposed diagonal recurrent neural network [15] and multiple RBF neural network [16] based models for measuring fouling in thermal power plant condenser. Although the technique of ANNs is able to estimate the fouling evolution of heat exchanger with satisfaction, there are some problems. The selection of structures and types of ANNs dependents on experience greatly, and the training of ANNs are based on empirical risk minimization (ERM) principle [18], which aims at minimizing the training errors. ANNs therefore face some disadvantages such as over-fitting, local optimal and bad generalization ability. Support vector machines (SVMs) are a new machine learning method deriving from statistical learning theory [18, 19]. Since later 1990s, SVMs are becoming more and more popular and have been successfully applied to many areas such as handwritten digit recognition, speaker identification, function approximation, chaotic time series forecasting, nonlinear control and so on [20-24]. Established on the theory of structural risk minimization (SRM) [19] principle, compared with ANNs, SVMs have some distinct advantages such as globally optimal, small sample-size, good generalization ability and resistant to the over-fitting problem [18-20]. In this paper, the use of SVMs model is developed for the predicting of a thermal power plant condenser. The prediction model was used in a case study of 300MW thermal power station. The experiment result shows that the prediction model based on SVMs is more precise than thermal resistance model and other methods, such as T-S fuzzy model [17]. Moreover, to improve the generalization performance of SVMs, an improved differential evolution algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of SVMs. 2. Periodic fouling process in condenser The accumulation of unwanted deposits on the surfaces of heat exchangers is usually referred to as fouling. In thermal power station condensers, fouling is mainly formed inside the condenser tubes, reducing heat transfer between the hot fluid (steam that condenses in the external surface of the tubes) and the cold water flowing through the tubes. The presence of the fouling represents a resistance to the transfer of heat and therefore reduces the efficiency of the condenser. In order to maintain or restore efficiency it is often necessary to clean condensers. The Taprogge system has found wide application in the power industry for the maintenance of condenser efficiency, which is one of on-line cleaning systems [6]. When the fouling accumulation in condensers reached a threshold, the sponge rubber balls cleaning system is activated, slightly oversized sponge rubber balls continuously passed through the tubes of the condenser by the water flow, and the fouling in the condenser is reduced or eliminated. The progresses of fouling accumulating and cleaning continue alternatively with time. Therefore, the fouling evolution in power plant condensers is periodic. However, the sponge rubber ball system is only effective of preventing the accumulation of waterborne mud, biofilm formation, scale and corrosion product deposition [6]. As for some of inorganic materials strongly attached on the inside surface of tubes, e.g. calcium and magnesium salts, can not be effectively reduced by this technique. As a result, at the end of every sponge rubber ball cleaning period, there still exist a lot of residual fouling in the condensers, and the residual fouling will be accumulated continuously with the time. Where, the fouling can be cleaned by the Taprogge system is called soft fouling, and those can not be cleaned residual fouling is called hard fouling. When the residual fouling accumulated to some degree, the cleaning techniques that can eliminate them, such as chemistry cleaning method, should be used. Generally, the foul degree of heat exchanger is expressed as fouling thermal resistance, defined as the difference between rates of deposition and removal [6]. In this paper, the corresponding fouling thermal resistance of soft fouling and hard fouling expressed as Rfs and Rfh, respectively. Then, the condenser fouling thermal resistance Rf in any time is the sum of soft fouling thermal resistance and hard fouling thermal resistance, expressed as Eq. (1). ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0 0 R t R t R t R t R t t R t t f fs fh f fs fh ? ? ? ? ? ? ? (1) where ( ) 0 R t f is the initial fouling. Fig. 1 periodic fouling evolution in power plant condensers Fig. 1 demonstrates the periodic evolution process of fouling in power plant condensers. In fact, the evolution process of fouling in a condenser is very complex, which is related to a great number of variables, such as condenser pressure, cooling water hardness, the velocity of the circulating water and the corresponding inlet and outlet temperatures, the non-condensing gases present in the condenser, and so on. The Rfs(t) and Rfh(t) expressed a very complex physical and chemical process, their accurate mathematic models are very hard to be obtained. Hence, measurement and prediction of fouling development is a very difficult task. Since the fouling evolution process is a very complex nonlinear dynamic system, the traditional techniques based on mathematic analysis, i.e. asymptotic fouling model, are not efficient to describe it [11]. SVMs, as a small sample method to deal with the highly nonlinear classification and regression problems based on statistic learning theory, is expected to be able to reproduce the nonlinear behavior of the system. 3. SVMs regression and parameters 3.1 SVMs regression SVMs are a group of supervised learning methods that can be applied to classification or regression. SVMs represent an extension to nonlinear models of the generalized portrait algorithm developed by Vladimir Vapnik [18]. The SVMs algorithm is based on the statistical learning theory and the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension introduced by Vladimir Vapnik and Alexey Chervonenkis [19]. Here, the SVMs regression is applied to forecast the fouling in power plant condensers. Let the given training data sets represented as ?( , ), ( , ), , ( , )? 1 1 2 2 n n D ? x y x y ? ? ? x y , where d i x ? R is an input vector, y R i ? is its corresponding desired output, and n is the number of training data. In SVMs, the original input space is mapped into a high dimensional space called feature space by a nonlinear mapping x ? g(x) . Let f (x) be the SVM outputs corresponding to input vector x. In the feature space, a linear function is constructed: f (x) ? wT g(x) ? b (2) where w is a coefficient vector, b is a threshold. The learning of SVMs can be obtained by minimization of the empirical risk on the training data. Where, ? -intensive loss function is used to minimize the empirical risk. The loss function is defined as L? (x, y, f ) ? y ? f (x) ? max(0, y ? f (x) ) e (3) where ? is a positive parameter to allow approximation errors smaller than ? , the empirical risk is ? n i emp i i L x y f n R w 1 ( , , ) 1 ( ) ? (4) Besides using ? -intensive loss, SVMs tries to reduce model complexity by minimizing 2 w , which can be described by slack variables. Introduce variables i ? and i , then SVMs regression is obtained as the following optimization problem: min ? ? ? ? n i i i w C 1 2 ( ? ) 2 1 ? ? (5) s.t. i i i y ? f (x ) ? ? , i i i f (x ) ? y ? ? , i ? , i ? 0 where C is a positive constant to be regulated. By using the Lagrange multiplier method [18], the minimization of (5) becomes the problem of maximizing the following dual optimization problem max ( ? )( ? ) ( , ) 2 1 ( ? ) ( ? ) 1 1 , 1 j j i j n i j i i n i i i i i n i i ? y ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? K x x ? ? ? (6) s.t. ( ? ) 0 1 ? ? ? ? n i i i ? ? ,C = i , i ? =0 where i and i ? are Lagrange multipliers, and kernel ( , ) i j K x x is a symmetric function which is equivalent to the dot product in the feature space. The kernel ( , ) i j K x x is defined as the following. ( , ) ( ) ( ) j T i j i K x x ? g x g x (7) There are some kernels, i.e. polynomial kernel K(x, y) ? (x ? y ? 1) d and hyperbolic tangent kernel ( , ) tanh( ( ) ) 1 2 K x y ? c x ? y ? c can be used. Where the Gaussian function is used as the kernel. ) 2 ( , ) exp( 2 2 ? x y K x y ? ? ? (8) Replacing i i i ? ? ? ? ? ? and relation 0 ? ? ? ? i , then the optimization of (6) is rewritten as max ( , ) 2 1 1 1 , 1 j i j n i j i n i i i n i i ? y ? ? ? ? ? K X X ? ? ? ? ? (9) s.t. 0 1 ? ? ? n i i ? ,C ? i ? ? ? C The learning results for training data set D can be derived from equation (9). Note that only some of coefficients i ? are not zeros and the corresponding vectors x are called support vectors (SV). That is, only those vectors whose corresponding coefficients i i are not zero are SV. Then the regression function is expressed as equation (10). f x K x x b i j p i i i ? ? ? ( ) ( ? ) ( , ) 1 ? ? (10) It should be noted that p is the numbers of SV, and the constant b is expressed as ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? p i i i i i p i i i i i b y K x x y K x x 1 1 min ( ? ) ( , ) max ( ? ) ( , ) 2 1 ? ? ? ? (11) 3.2 SVM parameters The quality of SVMs models strongly depends on a proper setting of parameters and SVMs approximation performance is sensitive to parameters [25, 26]. Parameters to be regulated include hyper-parameters C, ? and kernel parameter? , if the Gaussian kernel is used [25]. The values of C, ? and ? are relate to the actual object model and there are not fixed for different data set. So the problem of parameter selection is complicated. The values of parameter C, ? and ? affect model complexity in a different way. The parameter C determines the trade-off between model complexity and the tolerance degree of deviations larger than ? . The parameter? controls the width of the ? -insensitive zone and can affect the numbers of SV in optimization problem. The kernel parameter? determines the kernel width and relates to the input range of the training data set. Here, parameters selection is regarded as compound optimization problem and an improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed to select suitable parameters value. 4. Improved Differential Evolution Differential evolution (DE) algorithm is a simple but powerful population-based stochastic search technique for solving global optimization problems [27]. DE has three operations: mutation, crossover and selection. The crucial idea behind DE is a scheme for generating trial vectors. Mutation and crossover are used to generate trial vectors, and selection then determines which of the vectors will survive into the next generation. The original DE algorithm is described in the following briefly. 4.1 Basic differential evolution Let S ? Rn be the search space of the problem under consideration. Then, the DE algorithm utilizes NP, n-dimensional vectors X x x xt S i NP in t i t i t i ( , , , ) , 1,2, , 1 2 ? ? ? ? ? as a population for each generation of the algorithm. t denotes one generation. The initial population is generated randomly and should cover the whole parameter space. In each population, two operators, namely mutation and crossover, are applied on each individual to yield a trial vector for each target vector. Then, a selection phase takes place to determine the trial vector enters the population of the next generation or not. For each target individual t i X , a mutant vector { 1 , , 1} 1 ?1 ? ? t ? n t t i V v ? v is determined by the following equation. ( ) 1 2 3 1 t r t r t r t i V ? ? X ? F ? X ? X (12) Where F ? 0 is a real parameter, called mutation constant, which controls the amplification of the difference vector ( ) 2 3 t r t r X ? X to avoid search stagnation. According to Storn and Price [27], the F is set in (0, 2]. 1 r , 2 r , 3 r are indexes, randomly selected from the set {1,2,, NP} . Note that indexes must be different from each other and from the running index i so that NP must be a least four. Following the mutation phase, the crossover (recombination) operator is applied on the population. For each mutant vector t ?1 i V , a trial vector { 1 , , 1} 1 ?1 ? ? t ? n t t i U u ? u is generated, using the following scheme. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? , ( ) ( ) 1 , ( ) ( ) 1 x rand j CR and j randn i v rand j CR or j randn i u t ij t t ij ij (13) Where j=1, 2, ?, n. rand( j) is the jth evaluation of a uniform random number generator within [0, 1]. CR is a crossover probability constant in the range [0, 1], which has to be determined previously by the user. randn(i) ? (1,2,,n) is a randomly chosen index which ensures that t ?1 i U gets at least one element from t ?1 i V . Otherwise, no new parent vector would be produced and the population would not alter. To decide whether the trial vector t ?1 i U should be a member of the population comprising the next generation, it is compared to the corresponding target vector t i X , and the greedy selection strategy is adopted in DE. The selection operator is as following. ? ? ? ? ? ? , otherwise 1 , ( 1 ) ( ) 1 t i t i t i t t i i X U f U f X X . (14) 4.2 Modification of Mutation From the mutation Eq. (12) we can see that in the original DE three vectors are chosen at random for mutation and the base vector is then chosen at random within the three, which has an exploratory effect but it slows down the convergence of DE. In order to accelerate the convergence speed, a modified mutation scheme is adopted. The randomly selected three vectors for mutation are sorted by ascending in terms of the fitness function value. The tournament best vector is t tb x , the better vector is t tm x and the worst vector is t tw x . For speeding up convergence, the base vector in the mutation equation should select t tb x , and the direction of difference vector should direct to t tm x , that is to choose ( t ) tw t tm x ? x as the difference vector. Then the new modified mutation strategy is as following Eq. (15). 1 ( t ) tw t tm t tb t i v ? ? x ? F ? x ? x . (15) After such modification, this process explores the region around each t tb x in the direction of ( t ) tw t tm x ? x for each mutated point. The mutation operator is not random search any more, but a determinate search. However, the vectors for mutation are selected randomly in the population space, so in the whole evolutionary process it is still a random search, which can ensure the global optimization performance of the algorithm [28]. 5 Optimization procedures of IDE for SVMs 5.1 Objective function The objective of SVMs parameters optimization is to minimize deviations between the outputs of training data and the outputs of SVMs. Where, the mean square error (MSE) is used as the performance criterion. 2 1 1 ( ( , ))2 1 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? K k k k y f x w K Obj (16) Where K is the number of training data, k y is the output of the kth training data, and f (x ,w) k is the output of SVMs correspond to input k x . Then the objective of the IDE is to search optimal parameter C, ? and ? to minimize Obj: min F(C,? ,? ) ? minObj (17) Generally, the search range of these parameters is C? [1, 1000], ? ? (0, 1], ? ? (0, 0.5]. For special problem, the search range is changeable. 5.2 Optimization procedures The searching procedures of the improved differential evolution (IDE) for optimization of SVMs parameters are shown as below. Step1: Input the training data and test data, select the Gaussian kernel function. Step2: Specify the number of population NP, the difference vector scale factor F, the crossover probability constant CR, and the maximum number of generations T. Initialize randomly the individuals, i.e. C, ? and ? , of the population and the trial vector in the given searching space. Set the current generation t=0. Step3: Use each individual as the control parameters of SVMs, train the SVMs using training data. Step4: Calculate the fitness value of each individual in the population using the objective function given by equation (17). Step5: Compare each individual?s fitness value and get the best fitness and best individual. Step6: Generate a mutant vector according to equation (15) for each individual. Step7: According to equation (13), do the crossover operation and yield a trial vector. Step8: Execute the selection operation in terms of equation (14) and generate a new population. Step9: t=t+1, return to Step3 until to the maximum number of generations. 6 Case study 6.1 Fouling prediction scheme The formation and development of fouling in condensers is influenced not only by cooling water hardness and turbidity but also by working conditions of condensers, such as velocity of the cooling water and the corresponding inlet and outlet temperatures, the saturation temperature of steam under entrance pressure of condenser, the non-condensing gases present in the condenser, and so on. According to the previous analysis of periodic fouling process of power plant condensers, the fouling can be classified as soft fouling and hard fouling. Therefore, two SVMs models are developed to forecast thermal resistance of soft and hard fouling, respectively. Then, the whole prediction fouling thermal resistance ( f R? ) in condenser is the sum of output of soft fouling prediction model ( fs R? ) and output of hard fouling prediction model ( fh R? ). Generally, the evolution of soft fouling is determined by the velocity (v), turbidity (d), inlet (Ti) and outlet temperatures (To) of cooling water, saturation temperature of steam under entrance pressure of condenser (Ts), and prediction time range (Tp) (the running time in a sponge rubber ball cleaning period). Therefore, these variables are chosen as inputs of the soft fouling thermal resistance predictive model. As for hard fouling of the class of calcium and magnesium salts, it is related to the residual fouling at the beginning and the end of previous sponge rubber ball cleaning period (corresponding thermal resistance is Rfb,n-1, Rfe,n-1, respectively), hardness of cooling water (s), saturation temperature of steam under entrance pressure of condenser (Ts), and the accumulating running time of condenser (Ta). Hence, those variables are chosen as the inputs of hard fouling thermal resistance prediction model. The soft and hard fouling prediction model based on SVMs illustrated in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, respectively. ( , ) 1 K x x ( , ) 2 K x x ( , ) p?1 K x x ( , ) p K x x 1 1 2 2 1 1 ? ? ? ? p p ? ? p p ( , ) 1 K x x ( , ) 2 K x x ( , ) p?1 K x x ( , ) p K x x S b Ts 1 1 2 2 1 1 ? ? ? ? p p ? ? p p Ta Rfh Rfb,n-1 R fe,n-1 ? ^ Fig. 2 Soft fouling prediction model Fig. 3 Hard fouling prediction model The parameters of the two prediction models are optimized by the IDE algorithm. Fig. 4 illustrates the fouling prediction model using SVMs optimized by IDE. ? Fig. 4 fouling prediction model based on SVMs optimized by IDE 6.2 Experiment results In this section, experiments on N-3500-2 condenser (300MW) in Xiangtan thermal power plant are carried out to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The cooling water of this plant is river water that pumped from the Xiangjiang river. The Taprogge systems are installed in the plant to on-line clean the condensers. At present, the condenser is cleaned every two days using the Taprogge system, and every cleaning time is about 6 hours. Obviously, the fitted cleaning period is not optimal, because the fouling accumulating process is dynamic changing with the operating conditions changing. The experiment system consists of sensors for operating condition parameters measuring, data acquisition system, PC-type computer, etc. A set of 1362 real-time running data in different operating conditions in 84 cleaning periods is collected to train and optimize the SVMs model for fouling prediction, another set of 300 data is chosen for model verification. The proposed IDE is used to optimize the SVMs parameters. The control parameters of IDE are the following. The number of population is 30, the crossover probability constant CR is 0.5, the mutation factor F is 0.5, and the maximum number of generations is 100. The selection of above parameters is based on the literature [27] and [28]. After application of IDE, the optimal SVMs parameters of soft fouling prediction model are C=848, ? =0.513, ? =0.0117, the optimal SVMs parameters of hard fouling prediction model are C=509, ? =0.732, ? =0.0075. The velocity, turbidity, and inlet temperature of cooling water is different in summer and winter, the evolution of fouling in condensers is also different in the two seasons. In the experiments, four sponge rubber ball cleaning periods in different seasons are investigated. Among them, three periods, i.e. the first, 18th and 40th period, are in summer, and the other period is in winter. The hardness and turbidity of cooling water is 56mg/L and 17mg/L in summer, and is 56mg/L and 29mg/L in winter. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the comparison between the SVMs model, T-S fuzzy logic model [17] and asymptotic model is considered. The asymptotic model is obtained by probability analysis method, and the corresponding expression is the following [17]. ( ) ? 41.3?[1? ?(t ?1.204) /14.57 ] f R t e (17) Table 1 and Table 2 show the fouling thermal resistance prediction results of the above three models in the first and the 18th cleaning periods, respectively. From the Table 1 and Table 2, we can see that compared with tradition asymptotic model and T-S fuzzy logic model, the SVMs based prediction model has higher prediction precision. Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 show the predicted fouling thermal resistance evolution based on the optimized SVMs model and asymptotic model. Fig.6 clearly shows that the asymptotic model is not able to forecast the fouling evolution process at the beginning stage of the 18th cleaning period, the reason is that the residual fouling in the periodic fouling formation process is not considered in the asymptotic models. Table 1 fouling thermal resistance prediction results in the first cleaning period Running time Tpa (hour) Operating conditions Measuring values Rf (K.m2/kW) Prediction values (K.m2/kW) Relative error v(m/s) Ti(?) Ts(?) SVMs model T-S model Asymptotic model SVMs model T-S model Asymptotic model 0 2.0 19.1 33.2 0.0258 0.0260 0.0258 0.62 0 5 2.0 18.5 33.3 0.0995 0.0992 0.1018 0.0947 0.26 2.31 4.82 10 2.0 15.6 31.9 0.2028 0.2037 0.2007 0.1872 0.45 1.04 7.69 15 2.0 14.3 31.6 0.2501 0.2494 0.2411 0.2528 0.27 3.6 1.08 20 2.0 15.5 33.5 0.2865 0.2864 0.2830 0.2993 0.03 1.22 4.48 25 2.0 15.5 34.0 0.3174 0.3172 0.3123 0.3323 0.06 1.61 4.69 30 2.0 16.1 34.8 0.3420 0.3393 0.3321 0.3558 0.79 2.89 4.04 35 2.0 14.4 34.6 0.3567 0.3562 0.3497 0.3724 0.14 1.96 4.40 40 2.0 14.2 34.9 0.3722 0.3736 0.3600 0.3842 0.37 3.28 3.22 Table 2 fouling thermal resistance prediction results of the 18th cleaning period Running time Ta (hour) Operating conditions Measuring values Rf (K.m2/kW) Prediction values (K.m2/kW) Relative error v(m/s) Ti(?) Ts(?) SVMs model T-S model Asymptotic model SVMs model T-S model Asymptotic model 632 2.0 14.0 29.8 0.0774 0.0791 0.074 2.26 0 637 2.0 14.2 30.9 0.1772 0.1773 0.1850 0.0947 0.06 4.40 46.56 642 2.0 12.5 30.4 0.2474 0.2479 0.2438 0.1872 0.21 1.46 24.33 647 2.0 11.9 30.4 0.2898 0.2908 0.2955 0.2528 0.36 1.97 12.77 652 2.0 10.6 30.1 0.3230 0.3222 0.3354 0.2993 0.25 3.84 7.34 657 2.0 11.4 31.5 0.3447 0.3437 0.3525 0.3323 0.28 2.26 3.60 662 2.0 10.2 31.2 0.3655 0.3652 0.3648 0.3558 0.08 0.19 2.65 667 2.0 10.7 32.0 0.3831 0.3815 0.3767 0.3724 0.42 1.67 2.79 672 2.0 11.8 33.5 0.3985 0.3978 0.3912 0.3842 0.18 1.83 3.59 To eliminate the influence of residual fouling and improve the prediction precision, an improved asymptotic models are i

Meth the killer drug Essay -- Drug Abuse, Psychotic Behaviors, Brain D

Meth the killer drug â€Å"Meth is a very strong drug that attacks the central nervous system stimulant.† â€Å"The drug works directly on the brain and spinal cord by interfering with normal neurotransmission (â€Å"HOW METH DESTROYS.† 1) Meth is also potent an easy to make only thing you need is a few boxes of cold and asthma medications containing ephedrine or pseudoephedrine, red phosphorous, hydrochloric acid, drain cleaner, battery acid, lye, lantern fuel, and antifreeze are among the ingredients most commonly used. Longtime meth abuse causes brain damage, various oral cancers and oral infections, as well as psychotic behavior, and various skin conditions; it also decreases nerve sensitivity. Brain damage is a sure thing for a meth user; it can change your brain chemistry. â€Å"Meth releases a surge of dopamine, causing an intense rush of pleasure or sense of euphoria (â€Å"HOW METH DESTROYS.† 2) â€Å"Chronic abuse can lead to psychotic behavior, including paranoia, in somnia, anxiety, extreme aggression, delusions and hallucinations, and even death†. (â€Å"HOW METH DESTROYS.† 2) When addicts use meth it causes you to lose your memory and it also affects your cognitive abilities witch cause the user to be reckless and not think about what they are doing because when a user high wares of the go in to a depression and a sense of need more felling. â€Å"Meth also releases a high dose of adrenaline it also makes you suffer from similar symptoms as seen in Parkinson disease (â€Å"HOW METH DESTROYS.† 13) Meth has a focus effect on the user called tweaking which allows you to be super focus for a period of time, Meth mouth is a disease that comes along with long term meth use. â€Å"Meth mouth is the term called for user it’s a serious disease that rots your teeth and giv... ...easure at all. (HOW METH DESTROYS.†) Over time meth can destroy your dopamine receptors which control your felling and pleasures making it very hard to fill pleasure. Although these pleasure centers can heal over time, research shows that the damage done to the user cognitive abilities may be permanent. (â€Å"METH MADNESS.† 1) â€Å"Meth is a very dangerous drug that is powerful an will lead you down the wrong road meth will change you life so much that the users will not even know them selves because they would’ve of been to focused on the next high.† â€Å"Meth is the most addictive drug out there an it has so many risks such as brain damage, various oral cancers and oral infections, as well as psychotic behavior, and various skin conditions; it also decrease nerve sensitivity it also increase your risk of HIV/AIDS and hepatitis B an or C.†

The Gender of Sports Essay -- Athletics Men Women Essays

The Gender of Sports What are the social and cultural costs and benefits of an individual (male or female) entering a non-traditional sport for their gender/sex (e.g. women enter body building, power lifting, boxing; men enter synchronized swimming or field hockey)? In today's society, particularly in the United States, an individual entering a non-traditional sport for his/her gender takes on many tasks besides playing the sport, the individual also takes on the criticism (good or bad) of people who play the sport and those who watch it too. There are many social and cultural costs as well as benefits, but to what extent mostly depends on the sport and the sex of the player. The biggest thing that creates a social and cultural cost in the world of sports is change. People have a hard time coping with a change in the norm, especially when people are not welcome still to this day that women play sports. So as soon as a man/woman wants to do something different, there will always be controversy that will include harassment of the individual from sexual orientation to class, or simply what this change could do to the particular sport in the long run. A man entering a "women's" sport is very different than a woman entering a "man's" sport. There is more praise given to a woman entering a male-dominated sport and more disapproval given to a man entering a female-dominated sport. For example, when the ABL and WNBA, particularly when the WNBA, started up, many people questioned whether women could play professionally and handle the pressure of living up to the NBA. As soon as commercial ads came out for the WNBA league, it was done in a fashion to show that the WNBA did consist of straight women and it was not a league for... ...lp the society. In the short run there may be a slow start to the idea of the intermingling of sexes playing sports, but sport is such a moneymaking machine, sometimes change is what is needed in order to create ideas of marketing and in the long run it will be successful. The costs and benefits of this crossing over may vary from one society to another, but the biggest cost would be an unsuccessful emergence, which would just bring us back to the starting point. The biggest cultural and social benefit may be for that individual who succeeded in this non-traditional sport and will be used as a marketing tool. It may also create opportunities for the organization itself or society, like jobs in coaching, marketing or any other business in the area of change. It is also another way for an individual to have the chance to accomplish one's desire for the American Dream.